STATUS: RED

COVID Exit Strategy, a non-partisan group of public health and crisis experts, has been tracking the progress states have made towards containing COVID-19. However, the virus has reached levels in too many US states to plan for an immediate “reopening.” Over 1,000 health professionals have now joined a call from Maryland PIRG and USPIRG to shut down, start over, and do it right, which we have shared with Gov. Larry Hogan. We can still get COVID-19 under control, but it will require bold, coordinated, nationwide action: universal face coverings, shutting down high risk businesses, and a ban on non-essential interstate travel.

Benchmark: Daily cases per 100,000 population. Status: RED

Health experts recommend that a community maintain a rate of daily confirmed infections per 100,000 population below 3 to contain COVID-19. Infections have been growing in Maryland over the last 5  weeks, putting the 7-day moving average for daily new infections per 100,000 at 14, 11 higher than our target. To move to “Yellow” status, indicating  a need for caution rather than a move back towards lockdown, this number would need to fall below 8.

Benchmark: Sufficient testing to track the spread. Status: YELLOW

To adequately track the spread of COVID-19, a state should have sufficient testing capacity such that 2% or less of tests are returned positive. Maryland’s 7-day average is 5%, 3% higher than the goal. To reach a “Green” rating, the state will need to expand testing and reach a test positivity rate less than 3%.

Benchmark: Sufficient hospital capacity to avoid crisis care. Status: YELLOW

A state should have enough hospital and ICU beds available (at least 20% over the last week) to take care of all patients without resorting to crisis standards of care. HHS reports that Maryland hospitals are currently 73% full, and Maryland ICUs are 59% full. This meets the benchmark, but inpatient capacity is within 10% of the CDC recommended threshold, meriting caution. 

Recommendations

Maryland is currently failing 2 out of 3 of the critical benchmarks Maryland PIRG has been tracking. Over 1,000 medical professionals have joined a call from USPIRG and Maryland PIRG to shut down, start over, and do it right, which we have shared with Gov. Larry Hogan. We can still get COVID-19 under control, but it will require bold, coordinated, nationwide action: universal face coverings, shutting down high risk businesses, and a ban on non-essential interstate travel. 

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Notes and Citations

• Photo Credit: Ketut Subiyato, Pexels.com, Pexels attribution license.
• Color rating is based on the recommendations of COVID Exit Strategy. 
• Map graphic courtesy of COVID Exit Strategy.
• Test positivity & per capita case rate derived from Harvard Global Health Institutes’s “Key metrics for COVID-19 suppression.”
• Hospital capacity recommendations derived from the CDC’s “Opening Up America Again” framework, and detailed guidance released 5/19/2020.
• Current hospital capacity reports from HHS Protect.
• Data for COVID+, test positivity, and concurrent hospitalizations derived from data collected by the COVID Tracking Project.