WasteX: Environmental harms of satellite internet mega-constellations

A new space race is underway

The number of large satellites in the lowest-level of low earth orbit has increased by 127 times and the overall number of large LEO satellites has increased 12 times in five years, led by SpaceX. The new space race is ramping up quickly: some experts are estimating an additional 58,000 satellites will be launched by 2030. Other plans have been proposed to launch 500,000 satellites to create new mega-constellations that would power satellite internet.

What goes up must come down

Whatever satellites are launched can’t stay in orbit forever. If these proposals go through, at peak, 29 tons of satellites will re-enter our atmosphere per day, nearly equivalent to a car entering our skies every hour. That is a lot of space debris and pollution entering our atmosphere. That is not the only environmental concern, the rocket launches needed to maintain these mega-constellations are a huge potential source of pollution themselves, and would release soot in the atmosphere equivalent to 7 million diesel dump trucks circling the globe, each year.  

We need to better understand the risks

The environmental harms of launching and burning up so many satellites aren’t clear. That’s because the federal government hasn’t conducted an environmental review to understand the impacts. What we do know is that more satellites and more launches lead to more damaging gasses and metals in our atmosphere. We shouldn’t rush forward with launching satellites at this scale without making sure the benefits justify the potential consequences of these new mega-constellations being launched, and then re-entering our atmosphere to burn up and or create debris. This is a new frontier, and we should save ourselves a lot of trouble by making sure we move forward in a way that doesn’t cause major problems for our future. 

Better safeguards are needed for launches on this scale

For the history of the space industry, environmental harms haven’t been a serious concern because of the small number of operators, mostly governments and researchers, with few satellites and launches. Non-commercial players were never held to strict government regulations because the low frequency of launches was assumed to have minimal impact at a global scale.

With the new space race in full swing, these assumptions no longer hold. There’s too much that is unknown about the extent of environmental effects of rocket emissions, space junk, and satellite reentry on our atmosphere, Earth, and climate given the huge number of proposed satellites. With the scale of proposed satellite mega-constellations, and their disposability that requires constant replenishment, we can’t look away from the environmental harms of the space industry because we assume they’re science fiction. The science-reality of environmental harms is coming fast.

We shouldn’t leave it up to those “first to launch” in the space race

Our policies should come from a comprehensive plan that prioritizes using this technology safely and sustainably. We need to look before leaping, and require an environmental review and an upper limit of how many satellites can be deployed to ensure safety and opportunity for everyone. Our use of space should be measured against its benefit to the public interest rather than rewarding companies for being the first to launch.

At its peak deployment, Starlink’s mega-constellation will require 29 tons of satellites to enter the upper atmosphere every day. That’s nearly equivalent to a car entering our skies every hour.

What is a mega-constellation?

Distribution of space debris around Earth.Photo by European Space Agency. ©ESA. | Used by permission

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite mega-constellations, such as SpaceX’s Starlink, promise a faster technology for delivering satellite internet connection. This technology uses satellites much closer to the surface of the earth than the geostationary satellites that power technology like GPS or slower satellite internet connections. The closer distance to the Earth’s surface also means many more devices are required to provide consistent and fast connections. One estimate puts the number of additional satellites launched at 58,000 by 2030. Starlink’s proposed mega-constellation ranges from 30,000 to 40,000 satellites with constant replenishment as older satellites expire. Researchers have tracked international proposals for over 500,000 satellites in multiple competing constellations from Amazon’s Project Kuiper, OneWeb and others. The U.S. licenses for this exponential increase in satellite launches are granted from the Federal Communications Commission and are exempt from federal environmental reviews.

Regulators require LEO satellites to deorbit within five years after the end of their mission to prevent space junk from building up, making them far more disposable than other kinds of satellites. Regulators want to control the lifespan of objects in orbit to prevent collisions, which in turn would start a chain-reaction resulting in a cloud of dangerous space junk. 

Mega-constellations will also affect how we can appreciate the night sky. The International Astronomical Union has raised urgent concerns on the impact of light pollution from tens of thousands of additional satellites. At peak deployment, one in 15 stars we see would be a satellite, moving throughout the night sky. Worse, a spike in collisions could leave the sky looking like a shaken-up snowglobe.

If collisions increase rapidly, the resulting cloud of orbiting junk could make it dangerous to launch new space missions, effectively trapping us on the planet’s surface in a state known as Kessler Syndrome. Preventing this shroud of space shrapnel is why regulations require older satellites to be deorbited. Manufacturers design satellites to burn up (or “demise”) in the atmosphere once they’ve expired.

When a satellite “burns up,” the materials it was made from are distributed in the upper atmosphere. Due to the large number of short-lived satellites, at its peak deployment, Starlink’s mega-constellation will require 29 tons of satellites to enter the upper atmosphere every day. That’s nearly equivalent to a car entering our skies every hour. The composition of satellites is different from the metals found in natural sources, such as meteorites, and the effects are understudied. The metals from satellites as well as black carbon emissions from increased rocket launches, could affect our climate and ozone.

Global internet connectivity is a political, not a technical, challenge

Starlink claims we need these mega-constellations to provide broadband to the world, especially the one-third of the global population who remain unconnected from the internet.Connecting these people is a laudable goal, and part of the UN sustainable development goals, however satellite internet is unlikely to be the solution. According to the UN, 95% of the world’s population is already covered by mobile broadband. In other words, the barrier to global connectivity is not “coverage,” it’s other factors such as affordability and skills training. Starlink internet subscriptions, which cost $120 per month, don’t address these barriers.

More than 4,600 additional satellites were active in 2022 than in 2019, more than tripling the total orbiting our planet. In 2023, 73% of all satellite launches were for Starlink.

Think before you leap 

Large scale technological change to a new ecosystem requires precaution and oversight. Instead, the FCC has granted Starlink more than 30,000 satellite licenses, which are exempt from federal environmental impact studies.

More than 4,600 additional satellites were active in 2022 than in 2019, more than tripling the total orbiting our planet. In 2023, 73% of all satellite launches were for Starlink. We need a precautionary agency that can regulate the commons of our final frontier, as has been recommended by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). The FCC should follow the GAO’s recommendations and conduct environmental reviews for large constellations of satellites. Regulators should also ask if we really need multiple disposable constellations competing for the same limited space. We can have affordable internet for everyone without surrounding our globe with tens or hundreds of thousands of disposable satellites that could harm our environment.

Recommendations

1. Pause new satellite internet low earth orbit satellite launches until the Federal Communications Commission conducts environmental reviews for mega-constellations.

We shouldn’t rush into deploying an untested and under-researched technology into new environments without comprehensive review. Over just five years Starlink has launched more than 6,000 units and now make up more than 60% of all satellites. The new space race took off faster than governments were able to act. Regulatory agencies review individual licenses and lack the policies in place to assess the total effects of all proposed mega-constellations. Until national and international environmental reviews can be completed we should stop launching further low earth orbit satellites part of constellations that provide consumer internet connectivity.

The FCC is granting licenses on a first-come, first-served basis but both orbital space and the broadcast spectrum are not infinite. National and international regulators need to develop an unprecedented system of cooperation to share the commons of our final frontier. Until extensive coordination is in place, we shouldn’t let the commercial interests “first to launch” determine the rules.

2. FCC should end the environmental categorical exclusion of satellites.

In November 2022, GAO released their report, “Satellite Licensing: FCC Should Reexamine Its Environmental Review Process for Large Constellations of Satellites.” The report found the FCC sidesteps the National Environmental Policy Act’s required environmental review of satellite mega-constellation by claiming a “categorical exclusion.” Excluding all 24 applications for mega-constellations is absurd given the unprecedented pace at which the FCC is granting licenses. The GAO recommends that “the Federal Communications Commission should review whether licensing large constellations of satellites normally does not have significant effects on the human environment.” As of May 2024 the FCC has not reexamined their rules and still exclude satellite constellations from environmental review.

That launching 30,000 to 500,000 satellites into low earth orbit doesn’t even warrant an environmental review offends common sense. The GAO found that the FCC doesn’t have a documented reason for deciding mega-constellations are categorically excluded from environmental review. The FCC should immediately begin a comprehensive review process working with experts from academia, the Environmental Protection Agency, NASA, and other federal agencies. This review must consider the total effects of proposed mega-constellations in the context of other internationally proposed constellations—not on a one-by-one basis. The effects on the space environment such as orbital debris, and on the atmosphere, astronomy, climate, aviation, and surface all need to be considered. This review needs to be coordinated with international agencies such as the International Telecommunication Union, and researchers.

In response to the huge increase in commercial satellite license proposals, the FCC launched a Space Bureau in April 2023. However, the agency’s avoidance of responsibilities under the National Environmental Policy Act means it might not have the capacity or expertise to oversee the new space race. Federal leaders should consider if another agency might be better suited to oversee the exponential growth in the commercial satellite industry and ensure regulators have the resources and oversight necessary for the job.

Conclusions

New large scale technologies require oversight and study. The long term effects of this massive change to our environment aren’t clear. What is clear is that we can bring the world online without the unknown environmental harms of satellite mega-constellations. The FCC should coordinate closely with the EPA, NASA, and other national and international regulators to require extensive environmental reviews for the new space age. We’re in a short window of time when we can prevent making a mess of space and our atmosphere rather than spend decades cleaning it up.

The new space race doesn’t need to create massive space waste.